Lest we forget, today (Nov. 3) is actually Election Day in some corners of the country, even though (thank goodness) we aren’t scrambling to the ballot here in Illinois.
Many people will use today’s election results to trumpet the beginning of whatever pet trend they’re interested in. In particular, the results from the handful of heavily-contested elections or ballot referendums are going to form the backbone of pundits’ spurious arguments for the next few months, so you might as well be up to date on the issues.
After all, you never know what elected official might unexpectedly become nationally important. Here are some races and issues I can’t help but be interested in:
First, everybody’s favorite wedge issue: Maine voters will decide whether or not to strike down a law allowing gay marriage.
Laws prohibiting gay marriage are likely to topple like dominoes in the long term for the same reasons laws against miscegenation did a few decades ago, but exactly how it happens – State Supreme Court rulings, referendums, legislative action – is going to be a tangled and complicated mish-mash of processes that will give any future historiographers a headache.
Why you should care: The more states that enact or uphold same-sex marriage laws, the more that will. Election number cruncher extraordinaire Nate Silver even predicted Illinoisans would statistically be likely to vote to overturn a ban against same-sex marriage by 2012, though his model didn’t include figures on how many people would grouse endlessly about it afterward.
Next up, Virginia: Which is looking like it might swing Republican in a big way after several cycles of woe and going blue for Obama last year. GOP candidate for governor Bob McDonnell held a double-digit lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in polls going into Election Day, and if McDonnell wins he’ll be the first Republican to hold that office since 2001. Several of Virginia’s congressional delegation could also swing red.
Why you should care: A swing in the state’s congressional delegation will erode the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and that’s of course going to get people talking about what that means in 2010. Momentum in national politics is not always imaginary.
Finally, the place we all heart: New York’s 23rd Congressional District is becoming a microcosmic display of the disconnect between GOP leadership and conservative voters.
Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is not a Republican, but he, without asking, gained the endorsement of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Conversely, the GOP candidate, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race after voters railed at her for not being conservative enough. In a show of true New York guts, she turned right around and endorsed her Democratic opponent.
Why you should care: Here’s the GOP’s national conundrum writ small. Swing voters are trending less toward hard-line social conservatism, but the party’s “base” is unwaveringly conservative on social matters and is determined to be very vocal. In this scenario, it appears running as a Republican is no guarantee you’ll garner the conservative vote, or even that you’ll receive the endorsement of one of the Republican Party’s most visible (albeit most impolitic) public figures. Whether or not Hoffman wins is almost immaterial at this point – what matters more is that Scozzafava got drummed out of town, and disaffected GOP voters are going to take that to heart.

